ITS Logistics October Supply Chain Report: Non-Domiciled CDL Enforcement Pushes Spot Rates Up Amid Market Uncertainty

— Regional volatility, unseasonally steep import declines, and measured warehousing growth mark a shifting supply chain landscape as the US economy maintains modest resilience. —

RENO, Nev.: Oct. 23, 2025 – ITS Logistics has released the October ITS Supply Chain Report. This month, the truckload market is enduring more volatility driven by the recent non-domiciled CDL scrutiny, including spot market rate spikes and potential capacity shrinkage moving into 2026. Meanwhile, September port volumes saw a steeper month-over-month decline than usual, while key warehousing indicators signaled market recalibration and measured growth heading into Q4.

Since the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA)’s emergency ruling on non-domiciled CDLs and English language proficiency (ELP), the US capacity pool has seen a rapid exit of non-domiciled carriers from the market. Analysis from freight intelligence company GenLogs found that many carriers are quietly reducing their operations to intrastate only to avoid border checkpoints. Others are adjusting routes to avoid “hot” states with strict enforcement or heavy ICE agent presence—disrupting both short and long-haul logistics planning for many shippers. The regional volatility has also driven up spot market rates for van and reefer markets, though it is yet to be seen whether gains will hold given muted demand.

“While no one is immune to the volatility caused by this ruling, the real impact is being felt largely by brokers and shippers that rely heavily on the transactional and opportunistic capacity typically found on load boards,” said Josh Allen, Chief Commercial Officer at ITS Logistics. “In this type of environment, shippers should prioritize relationships with intermediaries that maintain strong, vetted carrier networks and emphasize communication, collaboration, and real-time visibility. Those partnerships are what will ensure stability as regulations continue to evolve.”

ITS Logistics anticipates that capacity will continue to tighten moving into 2026, shaped by evolving legislation, a surge in carrier bankruptcies, an aging driver workforce, and potential changes to insurance policy requirements. On Monday, the first lawsuit challenging the FMCSA ruling was filed, introducing additional uncertainty for carriers, shippers, and intermediaries.

At the ports, US import volumes declined 8.4% month-over-month to 2,307,933 Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEUs). While a dip from August to September is typical, the sharper decline reflects ongoing tariff uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Chinese imports specifically fell 12.3% month-over-month and 22.9% compared to 2024. The steep decline comes just as President Trump considers reigniting a trade war with China, threatening an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s announcement of tighter regulations on rare earth mineral exports, as well as retaliatory port call fees for US-owned ships. Despite these headwinds, September 2025 ranked as the third-strongest September on record, signaling that underlying import demand remains healthy.

Within warehousing and distribution, the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) declined to 57.4 in September, marking a slowdown in activity. Warehousing capacity expanded modestly, while utilization strengthened and inventory levels eased following Q3’s tariff-driven build-up. This combination points to disciplined network management and a shift toward operational efficiency across distribution networks.

“Together, these indicators portray a logistics environment that remains active but increasingly disciplined—focused on efficiency, cost control, and measured growth heading into Q4,” added Allen.

At the macro level, the US economy continues to show resilience despite indications of cooling. Strong GDP growth in the second quarter and gains across equity markets underscore a stable foundation, even as unemployment edges higher and consumer confidence wanes. The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut sought to ease pricing pressures and protect the job market, but inflation remains above 3%. Overall, the economy appears poised for a controlled slowdown—steady, but cautious—heading into year-end.

ITS Logistics offers a full suite of network transportation solutions across North America and distribution and fulfillment services to 95% of the US population within two days. These services include drayage and intermodal in 22 coastal ports and 30 rail ramps, a full suite of asset and asset-lite transportation solutions, omnichannel distribution and fulfillment, LTL, and outbound small parcel.

The monthly ITS Supply Chain Report serves to inform ITS employees, partners, and customers of marketplace changes and updates. The information in the report combines data provided through DAT and various industry sources with insights from the ITS team. Visit here for a comprehensive copy of the report with expected industry insights and market updates.

About ITS Logistics

ITS Logistics is one of North America's fastest-growing, asset-based modern 3PLs, providing solutions for the industry’s most complicated supply chain challenges. With a people-first culture committed to excellence, the company relentlessly strives to deliver unmatched value through best-in-class service, expertise, and innovation. The ITS Logistics portfolio features North America's #18 asset-lite freight brokerage, a top drayage and intermodal solution, an asset-based dedicated fleet, an innovative cloud-based technology ecosystem, and a nationwide distribution and fulfillment network.