IN THE NEWS: How Trump Tariffs Will Hit Biggest Retail Deal Days of Year, From Amazon Prime to July 4 and Thanksgiving

CNBC
May 2, 2025
Lori Ann LaRocco

FROM THE ARTICLE: President Trump said this week that there may be less dolls for children for this year’s holiday season amid his tariff war, but the hit to retail shelf inventory is likely to spread across many shopping categories if there is no quick de-escalation between the US and China in the trade war.

As early as July 4, many holiday sales promotions may start to look different, as small businesses that supply big box retail stores review product inventories and discount plans based on tariff economics. Business owners and supply chain executives tell CNBC the next 30 days are critical for trade deals that lift tariffs on China for the manufacturing orders to be placed and prepared to ship to replenish shelves.

For the first time since Trump’s tariffs announcement, China indicated this week it was open to trade talks with the US, with certain preconditions including the immediate suspension of the trade duties.

Retailers tell CNBC that concerns about inventory will influence planning of holiday season promotions and how many discounts they offer given the expectation for leaner inventories. Less overall product, and inventory that disappears more quickly, are likely for US consumers shopping during the July Fourth holiday weekend sales, Amazon Prime Day in July, and Black Friday and Cyber Monday around Thanksgiving.

Because of the combined time to manufacture (between 45-60 days) and the travel time on the ocean to deliver the freight, railroads and trucking companies are notified by US importers in June as to how many containers will be brought in by their clients so they can make sure they have enough trucks, chassis, and rail equipment ready for pickup and delivery of those containers arriving in August and September.
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There is an opportunity for suppliers and retailers to close the China gap by increasing orders from other manufacturing locations, a situation in which companies reliant on Chinese manufacturing may lose but the shelves do not run empty, even if overall inventory is lower while prices run higher based on global tariffs. Paul Brashier, Global Supply Chain Vice President for ITS Logistics, is more optimistic about the outlook for retail holiday season stocking based on movements he is seeing in orders outside China.

“While our data projects Chinese imports will see a cliff event as early as next week, our volumes from India, Southeast Asia and the rest of the world seem to be buoying our overall inbound volumes as shippers continue front-loading to fulfill consumer demand and gain market share from Chinese suppliers,” he said. “I do not see a considerable chance for empty shelves, but instead, products from areas manufactured outside of China are grabbing that shelf space.”

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