IN THE NEWS: Enforcement Actions Tighten Trucking Supply Ahead of 2026

Commercial Carrier Journal
December 22, 2025
Pamella De Leon

FROM THE ARTICLE: Regulatory enforcement efforts against noncompliant carriers and evolving global sourcing strategies are continuing to reshape supply chain infrastructure.

According to ITS Logistics’ December forecast in its US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index, these impacts will continue to intensify in 2026.

....

ITS noted that the enforcement landscape has grown significantly across multiple fronts, some of which, including the US Transportation Department withholding infrastructure funding and decertifying CDL programs from states, were deemed noncompliant with federal licensing regulations.

States are conducting roadside enforcement operations and even phasing out non-domiciled CDL programs. These actions, along with rising carrier insolvencies, are “culling the 2026 capacity pool of both inland and drayage providers, which will likely result in swift capacity crunches as demand returns,” the report said.

Josh Allen, Chief Commercial Officer at ITS Logistics, said capacity impacts are already materializing.

“We’re already seeing the impact today, particularly in the spot market,” Allen said. “Traditional indices and real-time metrics are showing early signs of capacity contraction, but it’s uneven, appearing in pockets rather than system-wide.”

He said the pressure will likely persist through year-end as drivers take extended holiday breaks and some may even exit the industry entirely.

Looking toward early 2026, Allen said that even as capacity continues to exit the market, the critical variable is meaningful demand rebound.

“The immediate impact on rates will be muted once the post-holiday e-commerce wraparound fades in mid-January,” he said.

Spot rates have broken away from contract pricing, Allen explained, but remain tied to typical Q4 seasonal patterns such as peak season and holiday shipping. As Q1 progresses, he added that there may be some weakness when seasonal demand tapers off.

“That said, the market is clearly preparing for a rebound," he said. "The capacity influences at play today are structural, not cyclical."

When demand picks up, even slightly, it will “begin a new chapter in the freight economy," he added.

Read the full article.